On 2008 handicapping

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Via Ezra comes this Devilstower post at DailyKos:

Folks, there is just no way for Kerry to win this thing that doesn’t involve at least two other candidates sharing a small aircraft. I’m sorry. A year ago I was solidly in Kerry’s camp. But he’s over.

For Edwards, the first chance to get a score won’t appear until his home state comes up on May 4. There is no other state in which Edwards leads. If there’s a mystery in this campaign, it has to be the non-success of the Edward’s campaign. I went to hear him talk last winter. Good speaker. Passionate. People were lining up to give him money. Heck, I gave him money. But there is no remaining scenario on this Earth that sees John Edwards to the White House.

Who wrote this trite piece of idiocy? I did.

Not only was I wrong on a scale so huge it would make Donald Rumsfeld blush, but this stellar prediction was made only two months before the Iowa caucuses, using polling data from a dozen different sources.

This is for those saying that Bill Richardson is at the back of the pack in polling right now: predictions two months from the primary date are sometimes worthless, much less two years out.

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