Well, the long-awaited ABQ Journal poll is out today, and the blogs are abuzz with analysis and discussion. Here’s a quick roundup, with my thoughts at the bottom.
First up we have FBI-HOP:
If Madrid is successful in tying Wilson and her voting record of being a voting buddy for Bush (which will be hard for Wilson to hide, since it is publicly searchable), that three percent can easily slide away.
Expect both camps to spin the poll their way; Wilson will emphasize that she is indeed ahead. Madrid’s camp will point out that Wilson is below 50 percent approval rating as an incumbent, and the negative feelings in Bernalillo County towards Bush.
From Joe Monahan:
Another critical number and good news for Wilson is her continued power with voters over 65 years, the most reliable voting demographic and one that will represent a higher percentage of voters than usual in 06′ because this is a mid-term election that draws fewer voters to the polls than a presidential year. Wilson has sealed the deal with a majority of them, getting 51% to Patsy’s 39%. Madrid will now be pressured to stop the bleeding with the vital prune juice set.
Here’s some national perspective from Swing State Project:
The troubling thing about this poll is how much better Wilson does with her own party than Madrid. Wilson has the support of 83% of Republicans while only 66% of Democrats favor Madrid. Indeed, 17% of Dems prefer Wilson, while only 8% of GOPers like Madrid. However, this may not be as big a problem as it looks, because Dems outstrip Republicans in voter registration in this district.
The overall number is great for Madrid, but some of the breakdown figures are concerning. Patsy is absolutely going to need a get-out-the-vote push on election day. In addition, she needs to tie Wilson to Bush on more than Iraq — she needs to hammer home Wilson’s record on Social Security and the economy as well. That will help her close the gap with seniors and Hispanics, two groups Madrid needs to carry to win this thing.
Come back Tuesday morning for thoughts on the NM-02 race between Al Kissling and Rep. Steve Pearce.