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	<title>Live From Silver City &#187; Hillary Clinton</title>
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	<link>http://www.avelinomaestas.com</link>
	<description>News and Photographs by Avelino Maestas</description>
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		<title>Superdelegate Transparency Project</title>
		<link>http://www.avelinomaestas.com/2008/02/13/superdelegate-transparency-project/</link>
		<comments>http://www.avelinomaestas.com/2008/02/13/superdelegate-transparency-project/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Feb 2008 00:30:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Avelino Maestas</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2008 Election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barack Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hillary Clinton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Open Government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Transparency]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.avelinomaestas.com/2008/02/13/superdelegate-transparency-project/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the past 48 hours, Congresspedia (in conjunction with The Literary Outpost and OpenLeft) launched the Superdelegate Transparency Project. My editor (working from a café in Argentina while on vacation) drafted a pretty great support structure, while we imported a bunch of data volunteers have collected on the Democratic nomination. The result is 55 pages [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the past 48 hours, <a href="http://www.congresspedia.org" title="Congresspedia">Congresspedia</a> (in conjunction with <a href="http://www.literaryoutpost.com/" title="The Literary Outpost">The Literary Outpost</a> and <a href="http://www.openleft.com/" title="OpenLeft">OpenLeft</a>) launched the <a href="http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Superdelegate_Transparency_Project" title="The Superdelegate Transparency Project">Superdelegate Transparency Project</a>. My editor (working from a café in Argentina while on vacation) drafted a pretty great support structure, while we imported a bunch of data volunteers have collected on the Democratic nomination.</p>
<p>The result is 55 pages — divided by state, district or territory — that compiles the popular vote, a pledged delegate count and, most importantly, a system to track the superdelegates. We&#8217;re identifying them, determining whether they&#8217;ve endorsed a candidate, and trying to track whether their vote is in line with what the constituents in each state want. With Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama racing toward a photo-finish, the superdelegates might decide who gets the nomination.</p>
<p><strong>Chris Bowers</strong> wrote a great <a href="http://http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3903" title="Introducing The Superdelegate Transparency Project">introduction</a> over at OpenLeft, if you want some of the back story on the process.  Otherwise, if you&#8217;re interested in the role these individuals will play in the Democratic nomination, you should head over to the <a href="http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Superdelegate_Transparency_Project" title="The Superdelegate Transparency Project">project</a> and read up. If you want to help shine some light on the process, <a href="http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Portal:Superdelegate_Transparency_Project/Help_out" title="Help Out: The Superdelegate Transparency Project">help out</a>. If you need any assistance, just let me know.</p>
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		<title>Clinton pulls ahead &#8211; but just barely</title>
		<link>http://www.avelinomaestas.com/2008/02/06/clinton-pulls-ahead-but-just-barely/</link>
		<comments>http://www.avelinomaestas.com/2008/02/06/clinton-pulls-ahead-but-just-barely/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Feb 2008 19:38:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Avelino Maestas</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2008 Election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barack Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Democrats]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hillary Clinton]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.avelinomaestas.com/2008/02/06/clinton-pulls-ahead-but-just-barely/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The latest from KOB (they&#8217;ve had some of the best info, IMO) has Sen. Hillary Clinton up by 210 votes, while Sen. Barack Obama was ahead this morning. However, if I&#8217;m reading their story right, Rio Rancho&#8217;s results still haven&#8217;t been tallied: State Democratic Party leaders said 16,871 provisional ballots were being counted Wednesday. At [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The latest from KOB (they&#8217;ve had some of the best info, IMO) has Sen. Hillary Clinton up by 210 votes, while Sen. Barack Obama was ahead this morning. However, if I&#8217;m reading their <a href="http://kob.com/article/stories/S337475.shtml?cat=500" title="N.M. caucus remains too close to call">story right</a>, Rio Rancho&#8217;s results still haven&#8217;t been tallied:</p>
<blockquote><p>State Democratic Party leaders said 16,871 provisional ballots were being counted Wednesday.</p>
<p>At noon Wednesday, four precincts still had not reported their vote totals.  They included three precincts in Rio Arriba County and one in Sandoval County where Rio Rancho <span>voters experienced extremely long waits</span> at the city’s only polling location. Some reported taking three hours to cast their ballots.</p></blockquote>
<p>Also, the state Democratic Party&#8217;s Web site is less than helpful at 2:30 Eastern time (sorry, stuck in D.C. mode):</p>
<p><img src="http://www.avelinomaestas.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/Caucus_Results.jpg" width="475" /></p>
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		<title>And it&#8217;s a toss up</title>
		<link>http://www.avelinomaestas.com/2008/02/06/and-its-a-toss-up/</link>
		<comments>http://www.avelinomaestas.com/2008/02/06/and-its-a-toss-up/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Feb 2008 13:06:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Avelino Maestas</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2008 Election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barack Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Democrats]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hillary Clinton]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.avelinomaestas.com/2008/02/06/and-its-a-toss-up/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Looks like New Mexico is continuing in its tradition of not picking a winner outright, and making the nation cool on its heels while the Land of Enchantment counts ballots: New Mexico’s Democratic caucus remained unsettled early Wednesday morning as Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama were separated by just 117 votes with nearly 17,000 [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Looks like New Mexico is continuing in its tradition of not picking a winner outright, and making the nation cool on its heels while the Land of Enchantment <a href="http://kob.com/article/stories/S337475.shtml?cat=500" title="N.M. caucus too close to call">counts ballots</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>New Mexico’s Democratic caucus remained unsettled early Wednesday morning as Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama were separated by just 117 votes with nearly 17,000 provisional ballots yet to be counted.</p>
<p>With 98 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton held 65,845 votes, or 42.97 percent, while Obama held 65,728 votes, or 45.89 percent.</p>
<p>State Democratic Party leaders said 16,871 provisional ballots were still to be counted Wednesday morning starting at 9 a.m.</p></blockquote>
<p>The CNN <a href="http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#NM" title="CNN Election Results: New Mexico">site</a> for New Mexico doesn&#8217;t even have that much information, while the <a href="http://www.nmdemocrats.org/ht/display/ReleaseDetails/i/1129743" title=" Democratic Party of New Mexico Presidential Preference Caucus Results">vote tally section</a> of the New Mexico Democratic Party is still lacking information on Bernalillo, Doña Ana and Grant counties.</p>
<p>Hopefully the picture will firm up by the time LP comes on.</p>
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		<title>New Mexico Exit Poll Breakdown</title>
		<link>http://www.avelinomaestas.com/2008/02/05/new-mexico-exit-poll-breakdown/</link>
		<comments>http://www.avelinomaestas.com/2008/02/05/new-mexico-exit-poll-breakdown/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Feb 2008 03:41:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Avelino Maestas</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2008 Election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barack Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Democrats]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hillary Clinton]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.avelinomaestas.com/2008/02/05/new-mexico-exit-poll-breakdown/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[(Update: I should mention that this information should be taken with a grain of salt, because I have no idea how reliable the data is.) LP has already mentioned the overall results indicated by CNN&#8217;s exit poll from New Mexico. However, I wanted to take a look at a few things that stand out to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>(<strong>Update:</strong> I should mention that this information should be taken with a grain of salt, because I have <strong>no</strong> idea how reliable the data is.)</em></p>
<p>LP has already <a href="http://nmfbihop.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=704" title="CNN's Exit Polls Show Obama Ahead">mentioned</a> the overall results indicated by CNN&#8217;s <a href="http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#NMDEM" title="CNN EXIT POLLS: New Mexico">exit poll</a> from New Mexico. However, I wanted to take a look at a few things that stand out to me, notably this response:</p>
<p><img src="http://www.avelinomaestas.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/Top_Quality.png" alt="Top Candidate Quality" height="200" width="475" /></p>
<p>This indicates to me that Obama&#8217;s message of change played a very large role in New Mexicans&#8217; decisions in this election. &#8220;Change&#8221; was the most important issue for more than half of all voters, and they voted overwhelmingly for Obama.</p>
<p>More breakdown of the exit poll after the flip:<span id="more-1395"></span> <img src="http://www.avelinomaestas.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/By_Issue.png" alt="Most Important Issue" height="132" width="475" /></p>
<p>The economy is definitely on voters minds, and it looks like people most concerned by the situation were supporting Clinton. Unsurprisingly, Obama won among those who thought Iraq was the most important issue, while it was much closer in regards to the health care block.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s three charts on voters&#8217; gender, age &amp; race, and income:</p>
<p><img src="http://www.avelinomaestas.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/By_Gender.png" alt="Voters by Gender" height="144" width="480" /></p>
<p><img src="http://www.avelinomaestas.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/By_Age_and_Race.png" alt="Voters by Age and Race" height="428" width="475" /></p>
<p><img src="http://www.avelinomaestas.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/By_Income.png" alt="Voters by Income" height="100" width="475" /></p>
<p>So, while more women showed up to vote than men, it looks like the candidates split the female vote. Obama won among men though, and among those making more than $50,000 a year. Clinton was a big winner when voters were making less than $50K, and her support among Latinos of all ages is strong. However, it looks like Obama brought in more white voters than Clinton, and that white voters outnumbered Latinos.</p>
<p>Obama&#8217;s appeal among affluent voters appears strong: voters with a college education swung for him by a large margin:</p>
<p><img src="http://www.avelinomaestas.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/By_Education.png" alt="Voters by Education" height="143" width="475" /></p>
<p>Finally, here&#8217;s a bit on ideology, where Obama won among liberals and conservatives while Clinton carried moderates:</p>
<p><img src="http://www.avelinomaestas.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/By_Ideology.png" alt="Voters by Ideaolgy" height="132" width="475" /></p>
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		<item>
		<title>Richardson&#8217;s third-place spot in Iowa in trouble?</title>
		<link>http://www.avelinomaestas.com/2007/12/03/richardsons-third-place-spot-in-iowa-in-trouble/</link>
		<comments>http://www.avelinomaestas.com/2007/12/03/richardsons-third-place-spot-in-iowa-in-trouble/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Dec 2007 22:03:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Avelino Maestas</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2008 Pres Watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bill Richardson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hillary Clinton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Biden]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.avelinomaestas.com/2007/12/03/richardsons-third-place-spot-in-iowa-in-trouble/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The latest Des Moines Register poll indicates Bill Richardson is holding on to his third-place spot in Iowa at the moment, but Mike Lux over at Open Left thinks Biden is the man to watch: Biden has more momentum than Richardson or Dodd going into the final month, and is picking up traction in some [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The <a href="http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=3942462&amp;page=1" target="_blank">latest Des Moines Register poll</a>  indicates Bill Richardson is holding on to his third-place spot in Iowa at the moment, but <strong>Mike Lux</strong> over at Open Left thinks Biden is the <a href="http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=2625" title="Where Things are in Iowa">man to watch</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Biden has more momentum than Richardson or Dodd going into the final month, and is picking up traction in some places around the state. I expect him to finish fourth , but he has a very long way to go to pull off a shocker and get into the top three- he&#8217;s not surging by anywhere near that much, not yet at least.</p></blockquote>
<p>The race in Iowa has an interesting mix of &#8220;WTF&#8221; going on right now, but I&#8217;ll put some stock in Lux&#8217;s thoughts since they&#8217;re not outside the realm of possibility. In addition, with Richardson  &#8220;<a href="http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/tapped_archive?month=10&amp;year=2007&amp;base_name=licenses_and_privilege#030897" title="LICENSES AND PRIVILEGE.">sucking up</a>&#8221; to Hillary lately, who knows if he&#8217;s feeling some of the affects of Obama&#8217;s recent surge in the polls.</p>
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