Election Predictions


Seems to be that time of year, doesn’t it?

For starters, here’s my electoral college map:

Avelino's forecast of the U.S. Presidential Election, predicting 370 electoral votes for Barack Obama and 168 for John McCain

If you haven’t tried out the “Create Your Own Map” feature at Real Clear Politics, you definitely should. Click on the map above to give it a try.

Also, here are my predictions for the Daily Kos 2008 Election Prediction Contest:

Avelino's prediction of the 2008 presidential, House and Senate elections

Methodology: Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio and Virginia.

As you can see, I’m basically envisioning a complete route in the electoral college. I think the pollsters still haven’t found a way to adequately measure people who only have a cell phone, and that’s why I’m giving Sen. Barack Obama such a wide margin. I’m cautiously optimistic about Ohio, Montana and North Dakota, but don’t really know about Missouri and Florida. Those could still swing to Sen. John McCain, but I’m putting a lot of faith in the residents there having learned something, anything, during the past eight years.

My Senate prediction includes a Dem pickup of 8 seats. I don’t think the Georgia race will be decided tomorrow, and Kentucky is going to go to McConnell. I do, however, think Al Franken is going to pull it out in Minnesota. That leaves us with the Udalls cleaning up in the Southwest, Kay Hagen taking out Sen. Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina, and Mark Warner sweeping up in Virginia. Mark Begich is going to defeat convicted Sen. Ted Stevens in Alaska, and Jeff Merkley is going to win in Oregon. Finally, Jeanne Shaheen is going to carry the day in New Hampshire.

The House is more of a crapshoot though. I basically looked at Pollster.com’s House tracking, took the 245 “strong” or “lean” Dem number, and added 2/3 of the remaining tossups. I’m thinking a mixture of Obama’s GOTV operation, his coattails, and dissatisfaction with Republicans are going to swing those races toward the Democrats. That puts us at 261 seats for the Democrats. I then subtracted two from the total, because races in Louisiana’s 2nd and 4th congressional districts won’t be resolved until Dec. 6.

As for New Mexico, I predicted above the state would go for Obama. I don’t know enough about the smaller, local races to weigh in, but I will say that I think the state’s entire congressional delegation is turning blue this year. Rep. Tom Udall is assured of victory over Rep. Steve Pearce in the Senate race, and Ben Ray Lujan is cruising to victory up north.

As for the two remaining races — Pollster’s trend estimate for CD-01 is remarkable: Martin Heinrich definitely looks to have the momentum, and their calling this one for the Democract. I agree. Meanwhile, all the polling I’ve seen shows Harry Teague with a lead over Ed Tinsley.