New NM-01 Madrid vs. Wilson numbers

1 Comment

Democracy for New Mexico and, later, New Mexico FBIHOP, were the first to blog about the latest poll numbers in the Patricia MadridHeather Wilson race up north. The data is good news for the challenger, as she has closed the gap and is now neck-and-neck with Wilson:

The Sept. 25-28 survey in the Albuquerque-based district found 44 percent supported Wilson for the congressional seat while 44 percent favored Madrid, the state attorney general.

With about a month of campaigning left before the Nov. 7 general election, it is the tightest contest for Wilson since she first won the seat in 1998.

The poll found 7 percent of voters were undecided, while 5 percent— perhaps turned off by a months-long blast of TV attack ads— said they would not vote for either candidate.

Wilson dropped one point since the last poll, while Madrid picked up two. The movement has come mainly in the number of undecided voters, by my reading of the figures, and in the number of Democrats who swung toward Madrid. The numbers, as highlighted by NM FBIHOP:

Madrid has solidified support within her own party, according to the polls: 74 percent of Democrats in the new poll said they favored her, compared with the late-August Journal survey showing 66 percent of Democrats supporting her.

Wilson had support from 11 percent of Democrats in the new poll, down from 17 percent in the previous poll.

As LP at FBIHOP said, there are more registered Dems than Repubs in the district. And if undecideds continue to swing toward Madrid, this race will be good news for the blue team come Nov. 8.

I’ve seen it stated that this poll contains numbers similar to one conducted in 2004, when Wilson had a tight race against Richard Romero. I don’t think the situation translates well. For starters, that race did not garner the attention that the Wilson-Madrid battle has, especially from a national perspective. The DNC and DCCC are now playing an active role in trying to take Wilson’s seat from the GOP.

In addition, Bush’s coattails aren’t what they were in 2004 — that’s why Wilson is trying to run from her ties to the White House establish her independence from the still unpopular president.

Related Articles