From the Santa Teresa weather gurus:

WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A LARGE LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE CAUSING A SHIFT IN THE MOISTURE PLUME. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE PLUME HAS SHIFTED BACK OVER THE STATE TODAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE PRESENT…SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A WEAK DISTURBANCE JUST WEST OF EL PASO THAT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME OF RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AND COULD CAUSE FURTHER FLOODING OF PREVIOUSLY RAIN SOAKED AREAS. CONTINUED WEST FLOW AROUND THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES MAY FURTHER SHIFT THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE EAST…GIVING THE AREA A BRIEF BREAK FROM RAIN ON SUNDAY.

THE RAINS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA…AS THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW STRENGTHENS AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH…SETTING UP AN OVER RUNNING PATTERN. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THIS PATTERN. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.